Here is what I see as a possible July USD Outlook

Possible end of tightening cycle
No Federal Reserve meeting – No interest rate
Q2 GDP will likely drop below 3% vice 5.3% in Q1
Wave 5 extension beginning EUR/USD and GBP/USD

July could be a rough month for the USD!

So you live in the western part of North America (I trade from Phoenix, Arizona) and you have discovered the power of trading the Forex market. Your passion runs so deep that almost instantly you are convinced that you want to do this full time. You get your requisite training and are ready to trade your live account. Just one problem … the job is keeps getting in the way!

Those of us who live in the Western part of the United States and Canada have a unique challenge when it comes to currency trading. Our time zones are not conducive to trading the European session and our window is small to trade the New York session before we must pack it up and hit the road. The Asian session is perfect timing, but not very active in the currencies rookies tend to focus on first.

I absolutely love trading the European session, but I am wasted the entire day from lack of sleep. I am very selective when I trade with London, because you ALWAYS want to be focused and on top of your game when trading!

Here are some simple recommendations to help you through your transition period.

1. Do Your Homework! This is valid with any trader, but for those of us who have a small window to trade peak hours need to be prepared to take advantage of any pips the market is offering up. This is really not a disadvantage. This can build and nurture a most profitable habit.

2. Go to Bed Earlier! It is very important to get your rest and trading in the Pacific Time zone requires an early wake up call to trade the London-New York overlap session. I awake 4:00 am pacific time to make sure I am awake and prepared when New York opens.

3. Develop a Solid Exercise Plan! I find when I am in decent condition I can get an additional 2 hours more of focused time out of my day. Those two hours I dedicate to making myself a better trader.

4. Find Your Trading Style! Synergize your trading style with your trading session. If you are like me and primarily trade from the 15-minute, 1-hour and 4-hour charts the European and New York sessions are my bread and butter. I use the Asian session to do my homework. If you are a position trader a whole new set of synergies come into play.


5. Be confident in your analysis. When I first started seriously trading currencies and juggling the job I found I had done my homework, planned an entry only to miss it because it occurred while I was in the middle of my mid-morning meeting. I learned very quickly to get comfortable with entry orders.

As you can see from these simple examples that becoming successful in currency trading requires two key elements…

Persistence will allow you to climb the learning curve and learn from your mistakes!
Change of mindset to not allow life to dictate the level of your currency trading success!

Happy Trading!!


Visit Forex Journey Lens for other tips and tricks.

A Book Review

“Conquer the Crash”
By Robert R. Prechter Jr.

If you have been trading the Forex market you will have no doubtlessly come across R.N. Elliott’s Wave theory. In this book Robert Prechter, President of Elliott Wave International, details a compelling economic theory using this wave analysis. Prechter walks us through a technical, social and fundamental analysis of past economic events in a manner for which prior wave analysis is not necessary. He is leading us toward a prediction of future economic events which will leave you staggering! His stunning conclusion of an upcoming economic downturn not seen since the Great Depression will leave you thinking not only of future planning, but also of current events. Warning aside, there are a myriad of strategies outlined in this book that, once deployed, can not only allow you to survive this economic apocalypse, but flourish despite the odds.

The blog is dedicated to Forex education. During major economic downturns your financial education will be the difference between prosperity and struggle. This is must reading for traders and investors alike!!

Click Here to obtain your copy of “Conquer the Crash” by Robert Prechter.


Click Here to preview the lastest Elliott Wave International Market Perspective.

Happy Trading!!

I have been receiving an ever increasing amount of emails for those of you interested in having dialog about Forex trading strategies. Of course you can email me at info@fxtradecentral.com. I have several sites with a different emphasis within the Forex Education and Training umbrella.

FX Trade Central
This is my mother ship Forex Education and Training website. The focus on this site is to provide an approach or methodology for learning to trade currencies. I also provide a running Forex course evaluation for a comprehensive approach to learning opportunities. Click Here now to view this site!

FXT
This is my premiere training site. This is where I learned to trade currencies and am an active participant in the Online Trading Rooms where the real training takes place during active market hours. Click Here now to view this site!

Forex Journey – Blog
Frankly this is where I can talk about anything I want. I try to relay my personal experience is learning the Forex market, as well as tips and tricks along my journey. I will always be a student of currency trading. Don’t click here because you are already there!

Lens
If you missed my posting on what the heck is a Lens just search back in the May/June archives. I have two lenses which are designed to provide more of a focus on my trading (http://www.squidoo.com/forexjourney) and why Forex trading is the next great frontier (http://www.squidoo.com/successinfx). The Forex Journey Lens is the only site I post excerpts from my trading plan and current trade set ups I am evaluating.

Your risk management strategy resides between your ears. Don’t listen to any sales pitch claiming one system is easier than others. It really lies in a simple formula. Dedication and perseverance! It is not as easy as the sales people make out, but it is also not as hard as the naysayer claim either! You education is truly a lifetime financial skill! No matter where you get your forex education, just get it! It is your most important investment.

Keep the emails coming! Your feedback matters!

Happy Trading!!

As we mentioned in Part 1, fundamental news tends to adjust the technicals and these adjustments translates into potential trading opportunities on the Forex market. Give these facts it is important we use both fundamental and technical analysis in our approach to trading currencies.

Fundamentals tend to be very inconsistent. This is why most traders, including myself, focus on the technicals. Fundamentals focus on the structural issues of currencies, such as flows of money and tend to be cyclical. Certain fundamental data carry different weight for different currencies. You will hear terms such as balance of trade, capital flows, employment and industrial production.

What does it all mean?

I have no clue. I am not an economist and I will never ever pretend to be (even with my fascination of the Central Bank role in the currency markets). In the end price action matters! How the currency price reacts to the news is the key. For example, EUR/USD pair is trending down and unexpected economic number that is dollar negative is released. The pair is likely to spike up and over a period of time resumes its previous downward technical direction.

It is all about using technical analysis to assess the likely direction of price and supporting it all with fundamental data. It is entirely possible to have two technical indicators and use fundamental data as a 3rd confirmation.

So how do we incorporate this into our currency trading plan?

Know the news and its anticipated impact on the currency pair. In my previous blog posting I provided some links to the two sites I use to monitor economic releases. If you reviewed the site you would have picked up on the fact that some news events are given a greater weight than others. I trade the London-New York overlap session, so the 8:30 am releases (and Fed news) catches my attention, but I will also get up a little earlier if significant news out of the ECB or Bank of England is expected. I tend not to have any short term position on or if I do I may close attention to my stop-loss. I let the market set the trend and enter the market when the “whip-saw” action has settle down and the market sediment for the news and trend has been established.

Be patient and be discipline! Always understand the big picture!

Happy Trading!!



For more information on how I trade visit http://www.squidoo.com/forexjourney. Feel free to email this lens to your friends!!

News is the Fuel.

The Forex market is driven largely by world financial market and news, both of the domestic and international variety. There are a host of players on the international FX stage including businesses, hedge funds, governments, banks, consumers and of course us traders!

By now I am sure you are wondering why a self-proclaimed technical trader is blogging about the news? After all isn’t this just more fundamental mumbo-jumbo?

Well you know what they say …

NEWS IS THE FUEL BUT THE TECHNICALS ARE IN CONTROL!!

Fundamental news has a tendency to adjust the technical when the news is unexpected. Before beginning my trading session I am sure to review the up coming economic releases to view any event that has potential to provide rocket fuel to the market. Some news will move the currency pair (Non-Farm Payroll) and some are may not. To get a list of those pre-planned economic releases that have the potential for moving the Forex market look into the following links.

http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/briefing/

http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php?page=calendar

Here are some recommended sites to get a more comprehensive fundamental view of the market.

Getting to know the impact of news events on your chosen currency will allow you to anticipate movements and plan your trades for more profitable entries.

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/digests.html

This site will give you much more the Forex, but you can search the archives for the FX related article. This site has been very informative for my long term planning.

In Part 2 we will discuss how to incorporate news events into your trading plan.

Happy Trading!!

It is important to find the Forex strategy right for you! When I began learning to trade the Forex market I was introduced to intraday trading using 5-minute charts. I gained an understanding of the nuances of market movements and the importance of technicals tools, such as Simple/Exponential Moving Averages and Fibonacci. These proved to be valuable lessons coming from the options world.

OK, truth be told … I hated it!!

This style of trading just did not suit my personality. It was a necessary step, but as soon as I felt comfortable and confident in the 5-minute trading style I dialed my chart right out to the hourly charts and beyond. I know lots of people that like the fast pace, simplicity of this style and are some of the most successful traders I know.

I am just not one of them!

My personality fits a longer term view and I just did not thrive in the faster paced decision making required in the 1-minute and 5-minute styles. My focus is on swing trading on the 240-minute chart and intraday trading on the hour and 15 minute charts. It is important while you are learning to trade FX you maintain an open mind to all Forex strategies, but in the end your personal trading style must recognized and exploited for long term success!

Happy Trading!!


For more information visit my site at http://www.fxtradecentral.com or my lens at http://www.squidoo.com/forexjourney!!!