27 Jun 2008

Forex trading has a pretty long history and could be seen in ancient Middle Ages when foreign exchange just started out as international merchant bankers devised bills of exchange, which could be transfered to third-party payments that allowed flexibility and growth in foreign exchange dealings.

The modern FX market is is variable with periods of high volatility and relative stability . By the mid-1930s, London became known as the leading center for foreign exchange and the British pound served as the benchmark currency to trade and was kept as reserve currency.

After the 2nd World War, when the British economy was decimated and the United States was the only country unscathed by war, U.S. dollar ($) became the reserve currency for most of the countries . In turn, the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold at $35 per ounce. Thus, the U.S. dollar became the world's reserve currency.

To execute these goals the IMF uses such instruments as Reserve trenches, which allows a member to draw on its own reserve asset quota at the time of payment, Credit trenches drawings and stand-by arrangements. The letters are the standard form of IMF loans unlike of those as the compensatory financing facility extends financial help to countries with temporary problems generated by reductions in export revenues, the buffer stock financing facility which is geared toward assisting the stocking up on primary commodities in order to ensure price stability in a specific commodity and the extended facility designed to assist members with financial problems in amounts or for periods exceeding the scope of the other facilities.

At the end of the 70-s the free-floating of currencies was officially mandated that became the most important landmark in the history of financial markets in the XX century lead to the formation of Forex in the contemporary understanding. That is the currency may be traded by anybody and its value is a function of the current supply and demand forces in the market, and there are no specific intervention points that have to be observed. Foreign exchange has experienced spectacular growth in volume ever since currencies were allowed to float freely against each other. While the daily turnover in 1977 was U.S. $5 billion, it increased to U.S. $600 billion in 1987, reached the U.S. $1 trillion mark in September 1992, and stabilized at around $1.5 trillion by the year 2000.

Main factors influences on this spectacular growth in volume are mentioned below. A significant role belonged to the increased volatility of currencies rates, growing mutual influence of different economies on bank-rates established by central banks, which affect essentially currencies exchange rates, more intense competition on goods markets and, at the same time, amalgamation of the corporations of different countries, technological revolution in the sphere of the currencies trading. The latter exposed in the development of automated dealing systems and the transition to the currency trading by means of the Internet. In addition to the dealing systems, matching systems simultaneously connect all traders around the world, electronically duplicating the brokers' market.

Advances in technology, computer software, and telecommunications and increased experience have increased the level of traders' sophistication, their ability to both generate profits and properly handle the exchange risks. Therefore, trading sophistication led toward volume increase.

8 Jun 2008

I liquidated some profitable short positions in the EURTRY around the 1.9150 price level. While this wasn't the absolute bottom it was well below the current levels -- due to a recent price spike. As the spreads are reasonable during the morning hours I will consider selling a small chunk tomorrow morning if it looks like things are going to turn around.However, the EURTRY is not the place for
Both of these currency pairs have moved a long away against carry positions.It might be time to consider shorting some AUDNZD and going long some NZDUSD. Take a look at the dailies [daily charts] and see if you think some type of reversal is in the works.As always, remember I'm a carry trader, so I'd buy a small position that I'd be happy to hold for the long term in the event that I was
It's starting to look like time to consider taking a small bite of GBPCHF. However, you may want to wait for a bit of strength before taking the leap...

7 Jun 2008

Many of you trading in the Forex markets know that the difference between success and failure lies in the probabilities.What is the probability that your speculation will be correct?The more often that your positions are correct the more profitable you will be. This is part of the reason that so many bozos are busy promoting supposedly infallible commercial signals. Seriously, if their signals

29 Apr 2008




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Short Term Analysis - Apr 28, 2008

20080428_audusd_1.gifAUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD formed a short term cycle top at 0.9541 and dropped sharply to as low as 0.9290. Further decline to test 0.9220 area to reach the next cycle bottom on 4-hour chart is still possible in a couple of days. Key support is at 0.9205, a break of this level will signal the reversal to the up trend.

20080428_eurusd_1.gifEURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD is now in down trend. Rebound from 1.5554 is treated as consolidation to the down trend. Deeper decline to test 1.5342 (Mar 24 low) support is still possible after consolidation. Near term resistance is at 1.5707, a break of this level will indicate lengthier consolidation and delay the resumption of the down trend.

20080428_usdcad_1.gifUSDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD formed a short term cycle top at 1.0214 on 4-hour chart. Further fall below 0.9987 previous low is still possible in the next several days. Key resistance is at 1.0214, only rise above this level will signal the resumption of the long term up trend.

20080428_gbpusd_1.gifGBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD rebounded sharply from 1.9676. However, the rise from 1.9676 is treated as correction to the down trend. As long as 2.0029 key resistance holds, we’d expect down trend to resume and then fall below 1.9599 could be seen.

20080428_usdchf_1.gifUSDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF is in up trend. Further rise towards 1.0600 area to reach the next short term cycle top is possible after consolidation. Near term support is at 1.0300 and followed by 1.0165, as long as 1.0165 support holds, up trend will continue.

20080428_usdjpy_1.gifUSDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY broke above 104.64 previous high and up trend resumed. Further rise towards 107.00 area to reach the next short term cycle top is possible. Initial support is at 103.33, as long as this support holds, up trend will continue.

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